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Analysis of the Current Market Situation and Development Prospects of China’s Class I Vaccine Industry in 2021: Batch Release Volume Exhibits Stable Fluctuations
Release date:
2021-08-13
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Abstract
Text by/ Reposted from Forward-looking Economist
Based on whether they are included in the National Immunization Program, vaccines can be categorized as National Immunization Program vaccines. ( Category I vaccine ) and non‑immunization‑program vaccines ( Category II vaccines ) . Vaccines included in the National Immunization Program are those provided free of charge to citizens by the government, encompassing vaccines specified in the national immunization schedule, additional vaccines introduced by provincial governments when implementing the national program, and vaccines used in emergency or mass‑vaccination campaigns organized by government authorities. Non‑program vaccines refer to other vaccines that citizens may voluntarily receive at their own expense.
Major listed companies in the industry: Kangtai Biological (300601) , Sinopharm Holdings (01099.HK)
Core data of this article: Batch release volume, product structure, market size
“14” seedling 15 illness ” The state exercises strict control.
Class I vaccines are… “ Immunization program vaccines ” It refers to vaccines that the government provides free of charge to citizens in accordance with disease-control needs and taking into account the country’s capacity, and which citizens are required to receive as stipulated by government regulations. The state exercises strict control over the production, distribution, sale, and pricing of Category I vaccines.
Batch release volumes have been fluctuating steadily.
2013-2019 In [year], the batch release volume of Class I vaccines in China has shown a fluctuating trend. 2019 Year is 3.46 hundred million units, up year-on-year 5.42% 。2020 In [year], the batch release volume of Class I vaccines in China reached [value]. 3.50 hundred million units, up year-on-year 1.39% 。2021 In the first quarter of the year, the batch release volume of Class I vaccines was 0.5 One hundred million units.
occupy 50% The above batch release volume
From the perspective of vaccine product composition, China currently relies predominantly on Class I vaccines, which account for a consistent share of the total batch release volume. 50% That is all.
2020 Annual batch release of Class I vaccines 3.50 hundred million units, up year-on-year 1.16% . Total batch release of Class II vaccines 3.01 hundred million units, up year-on-year 38.99% , the proportion of Class II vaccines has decreased from 2019 year's 38.57% Quickly upgrade to 46.25% 。
2021 In the first quarter of the year, batch release of Class I vaccines was conducted. 5347.45 Ten thousand units, down year-on-year. 39.49% , proportion 47.58%; Batch release of Class II vaccines 5890.45 Ten thousand units, up year over year 39.22% , the proportion of Class II vaccines increased year over year. 20.05 percentage points, share 52.42% 。
The hepatitis B vaccine, acellular pertussis–diphtheria–tetanus vaccine, and Japanese encephalitis live attenuated vaccine rank among the top three in market share.
From the perspective of the product structure of Class I vaccines, 2020 In [year], the vaccine with the highest batch release volume among Class I vaccines was the hepatitis B vaccine, reaching [value]. 6468 Ten thousand branches ; Next are the acellular pertussis–diphtheria–tetanus vaccine and the live attenuated Japanese encephalitis vaccine, with batch release volumes of 5116 Ten thousand branches and 4415 Ten thousand doses. A total of six Class I vaccine products have had their batch release quantities at… 3000 More than ten million doses, including hepatitis B vaccine, acellular pertussis–diphtheria–tetanus vaccine, Japanese encephalitis live attenuated vaccine, measles–mumps–rubella vaccine, hepatitis A live attenuated vaccine, and poliovirus live attenuated vaccine, with batch release quantities of: 6468、5116、4415、4261、3499、3458 Ten thousand branches.
The market size will decline gradually before leveling off.
The market for Class I vaccines is primarily driven by the national immunization program; currently, the vaccination coverage rate for Class I vaccines in China has exceeded 90% The level. The fluctuations in the market for Class I vaccines are closely linked to changes in the birth rate.
2016 In [year], our country began to implement... “ Second-child policy ” , in that year, the growth rate of newborns was relatively high, with the number of newborns reaching 1786 Ten thousand people ; Therefore 2016 The growth rate of batch release volume for Class I vaccines reached 14.71% , the highest increase in recent years.
2017 Following the Lunar New Year, the market for Class I vaccines is unlikely to experience significant growth, weighed down by the ongoing decline in birth rates. According to projections from the China Population and Development Research Center, driven by a sustained reduction in the number of women of childbearing age and persistently low fertility intentions, China’s annual births are expected to continue falling over the next few years.
Accordingly, the market for Category I vaccines is expected to experience a gradual downward trend in the future. According to… 2015-2020 Looking at the changes in the market size of Class I vaccines in China, the market is currently on a downward trend. 2020 The annual market size is 29 One hundred million yuan.
It is expected that the rate of decline in the number of newborns will gradually level off, and the contraction in the market size for Class I vaccines will also slow down. Based on preliminary estimates, 2026 The annual scale is approximately 24 One hundred million yuan.
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